Recession: A great time to buy!

By Glenn Roberts Jr.
While housing sales are slumping nationally, the monthly Reuters/Zogby Index released today found that most of a group of 1,049 likely voters believe it is a good time to buy a home. The survey, which was conducted April 10-12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, found that 53.8 percent of participants believe it is a good buying opportunity, while 41.6 percent said it is not a good time to buy and the remainder were unsure, Reuters reported. The error margin and 4.6 percent "unsure" respondents, though, make this somewhat of a tossup.
The overall Reuters/Zogby Index climbed to 95.5 percent this month after hitting a low of 87.7 percent in March. This index is based on responses to 10 poll questions about the state of the nation and the economy. This index was launched in August 2007, and the baseline rating established for that month was 100.
About 71 percent of index participants said they believe the U.S. economy is now in a recession, down from 74 percent in last month's index. The National Association of Home Builders' chief economist this week threw his hat into the recession ring, declaring in his latest forecast that the nation is already in a recession and that he expects this "mild recession" to fade away at the close of the second quarter.
About 81 percent of survey participants view U.S. economic policy as fair or poor, and about 53 percent rate their personal financial situation as excellent or good. About two-thirds of survey participants said the nation is on the wrong track, down from 73 percent in March -- about 83 percent of Democrats expressed pessimistic views in this area, while 48 percent of Republicans said the nation is going the wrong way.
Is Congress doing its job? About 16 percent of survey participants gave positive marks to Congress, compared to 13 percent in last month's survey.
On the heels of the poll results, online real estate advertising site ForSaleByOwner.com sent out a statement today about the importance of consumer confidence. "The missing ingredient to recovery within the housing market has been consumer confidence," a company spokesman said, adding that the survey results "are a great sign of growing consumer confidence and awareness that market conditions have provided unique buying opportunities."
But can consumer confidence override a recession (if we are in fact in one)? And do polls speak louder than pocketbooks? The U.S. Census Bureau and Housing and Urban Development Department today reported that housing starts and new-home building-permit authorizations hit the lowest rate since 1991, and single-family starts and permits have been in decline for 12 straight months. NAHB is forecasting a 30 percent decline this year in housing starts, and the National Association of Realtors has forecast a 4.7 percent dip in sales of resale homes compared to 2007, and a 25.7 percent drop in new single-family home sales.