Forecasters See 'Slightly Busier' Atlantic Storm Season

Submitted by Ronald Tennant with Metrocities Mortgage:

MBA (5/23/2008 ) MBA Staff
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration anticipates a “slightly busier” than average Atlantic storm season this summer, citing a “good chance” of six to nine hurricanes forming and possibly 12 to 16 named storms.
“The main factors influencing this year’s seasonal outlook are the continuing multi-decadal signal—the combination of ocean and atmospheric conditions that have spawned increased hurricane activity since 1995—and the anticipated lingering effects of La Niña,” said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “One of the expected oceanic conditions is a continuation since 1995 of warmer-than-normal temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic.”

However, NOAA officials took pains this week to stress that its forecast has a wide range of probability, citing a “60 to 70 percent” chance its prediction would actually come true. This comes on the heels of criticism of the forecast, which has occasionally been wildly inaccurate.

For example, while 2007’s forecast came in fairly accurately—NOAA predicted 13 to 17 storms (there were 15) and seven to 10 hurricanes (there were six, of which two were major); in 2005—the year of the devastating Hurricanes Katrina and Rita—NOAA predicted 12 to 15 named storms, but a record 28 formed.

“The outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity,” said NOAA Administrator Conrad Lautenbacher. “It does not predict whether, where or when any of these storms may hit land.”

An “average” season has 11 named storms of which six become hurricanes (two of which become major), NOAA said.

Another forecaster, Colorado State University researcher William Gray, predicted 15 storms this season, including eight hurricanes of which four could be major (winds in excess of 110 miles per hour).

“We foresee a well above-average Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2008,” Gray said. “We have increased our seasonal forecast from our initial early December prediction. We anticipate an above-average probability of United States major hurricane landfall.”

The Atlantic storm season begins June 1 and runs through November 30.